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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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