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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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