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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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