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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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