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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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