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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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