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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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