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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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