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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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