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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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