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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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