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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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