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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
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