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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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