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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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