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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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