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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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