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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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