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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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