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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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