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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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