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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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