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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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