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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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