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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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