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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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