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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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