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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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