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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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