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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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