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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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