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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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