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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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