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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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