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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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