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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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