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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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