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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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