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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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