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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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