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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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