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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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