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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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