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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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