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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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