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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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