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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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