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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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