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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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