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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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