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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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