We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
|
|
|
Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
|
| |
| |
|
